"Not Even Wrong" Podcast
We share thoughts and what drives our decisions

Episode September 17, 2020

Inspired by Stephen Wolfram's physics project we develop a new way to think about wealth creation. 

Episode September 15, 2020

Lessons from wealth creators applied to Tesla.. Lululemon founder Chip Wilson talks about the importance of vertical retail and Netflix founder Reed Hastings talks about optimizing for creativity and efficiency.

Episode September 14, 2020

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen". Lenin. Tesla is putting a gun in the face of OEMs.

Episode September 10, 2020

Wall Street obsession with Tesla S&P 500 inclusion. Best is to ignore.

Episode September 9, 2020

Partnerships in business are not good for investors. Tesla and VW have not much to share. Wondering how longterm the Nikola and GM partnership will be. 

Episode September 8, 2020

Play to win, don't play not to loose. Our Tesla strategy case in point.

 

Episode September 7, 2020

Narratives are great for life lessons but dangerous for investors.

Episode September 4, 2020

Tesla is selling the FSD software suite even though it's not complete. This is a part of building the innovations stack.

Episode September 3, 2020

Volatility spike in markets. The purpose of financial markets are to generate wealth through investing in disruptive technologies with large impact. Those matter the most. Daily noise is irrelevant.

Episode September 2, 2020

New Fed inflation policy will drive asset prices. In particular growth stocks with underlying disruptive technologies will benefit.

Episode September 1, 2020

In 1994 the bondmarket sold off and scared the Clinton administration. What followed was a huge effort to reign in deficits. Today the bondmarket is tolerating high deficits and low interest rates. This is a conundrum. We discuss some ideas why.

Episode August 31, 2020

Risks in the market. Bifurcation of economy in winners and losers will drive social unrest. This is the biggest risk. Best way to deal with it is to show kindness.

Episode August 30, 2020

People have two lives, the second begins, when you realize you only have one." This Confucius quote works well for Hedge Funds.

Episode August 29, 2020

When analyzing companies looking at job ads is a useful tool. Tesla is clear and precise. Twitter isn't. It tells you something about the company.

Episode August 27, 2020

Questions for Tesla Shareholder Day. 2. What methods are you using to lower cost of iteration? Is iteration key to battery road map or are you banking on battery breakthroughs?

Episode August 26, 2020

Questions for Tesla Shareholder Day. 1. How do you scale human resources while still keeping the high pace of innovation?

Episode August 24, 2020

We discuss two positions that have lost money so far, INTC and RTX. There is potential for outsized returns when using the right instruments.

Episode August 23, 2020

How to handle tail risk? Example, California wild fires and Tesla Fremont factory.

Episode August 21, 2020

Iteration is key to improving battery technology. Tesla's main competitive advantage is building processes that can be continuously improved through iteration. Battery tech is case in point.

Episode August 19, 2020

Tesla is building a supercomputer to run unsupervised learning on massive video content. We believe they are trying to create for video what GPT did for language. It's a great project with huge potential.

Episode August 17, 2020

Will Tesla license technology to third parties? Even if they did, it won't help third parties compete. That's because Tesla's innovation stack is so deep that copying only certain parts wont help.

Episode August 15, 2020

While Wall Street bets on climate change, Main Street is still skeptical. Why? Because people fundamentally mistrust science when it's not used properly.

Episode August 13, 2020

What is disruption? Disruption stands on three pillars. 1. Clayton Christensen's Innovators Dilemma, 2. Jim McKelvey's Innovation Stack and 3. Peter Thiel's Zero to One.

Episode August 11, 2020

Are there other avenues for knowledge acquisition, other than the scientific method? The question is relevant for science and the hedge fund business. 

Episode August 9, 2020

What do you solve for? The question is at the heart of any business, in particular a business as complex as fund management.

Episode July 31, 2020

Discussing our positions other than Tesla. Performance review, analysis and thoughts.

Episode July 28, 2020

Innovation Stack and Human Stack are two sides of the same coin. You need both. Tesla has the former, working on the later. Key question is, how to avoid an elitist culture as a market leader.

Episode July 28, 2020

Innovation Stack and Human Stack are two sides of the same coin. You need both. Tesla has the former, working on the later. Key question is, how to avoid an elitist culture as a market leader.

Episode July 26, 2020

What do I get out of my job? The hedge fund business is an eat what you catch business. It fosters curiosity, independence and the necessity to be interesting.

Episode July 24, 2020

We need new Moore's Laws such as for battery technology, charging technology, AI and manufacturing technology. Those areas have more potential for disruption than the actual Moore's Law.

Episode July 23, 2020

Why the gold price is bothering me. Higher Gold price is not a good thing. Tesla's stock reaction to earnings is a good lesson for market dynamics.

 

Episode July 22, 2020

Valuation models for equities are difficult to reconcile with current market prices. The reason is that zero or negative interest rates require new models.

Episode July 21, 2020

What we are is best explained by what we are not. No diversification, no excessive trading, no fund raising for the sake of fund raising and no obsession about volatility. 

Episode July 20, 2020

Focus on Fed credit and liquidity measures that are driving risk asset prices higher. Disruptive companies with real organic growth are beneficiaries.

Episode July 18, 2020

Discussing two books, Dr. Faustus by Thomas Mann and Moby Dick by Herman Melville. Is there a limit to positive force and the "can do" mentality? Is genius a pact with the devil? How far can disruption take us and is it always good?

Episode July 17, 2020

Discussing "I am a Strange Loop" book by Douglas Hofstadter. Tools for thinking. Reflection on AI and what is possible. Thinking about thinking is not just useful but absolutely necessary in the hedge fund business.

Episode July 16, 2020

There are three vectors Tesla is riding on to become a trillion dollar company. One is AI, one is harnessing the power of the sun and one is building the machine to build the machine. Today we talk about harnessing the power of the sun.

Episode July 15, 2020

Tools for ​running a hedge fund. It depends on your purpose. In our case it's getting better at spotting disruption and refining the concept of social impact. 

Episode July 14, 2020

Reverse Dispersion is how incumbents take advantage of disruptive technology. Example Intel.

Episode July 13, 2020

Is capitalism an algorithm gone wrong? Yes. Also discussing today's massive market reversal. It's a great lesson for what it feels like to run a hedge fund. 

Episode July 12, 2020

Alex Honnold talks about free soloing El Capitan. There is an interesting connection between free soloing El Cap and running a hedge fund.

 

Episode July 11, 2020

The three vectors Tesla is working on towards a trillion dollar company are AI, harnessing the power of the sun and accelerating AI in manufacturing. Today we talk about AI and the self drive effort. 

Episode July 10, 2020

Zero interest rates require new valuation models. Growth stocks appear overvalued based on old models. But are they?

Episode July 9, 2020

We discuss our first half performance. The main driver was actually Macro. Quoting Keynes. 

 

Episode July 8, 2020

Purpose is key in the investment business. Elon Musk is very good at formulating purpose. What is our purpose?

Episode July 7, 2020

The argument for a short squeeze in Tesla stock. It's not the shorts, it's the index trackers that are buying to match their benchmarks.

Episode July 6, 2020

The rate of disruption depends on the cost decline of iteration. The more iteration the more disruption. Both AI and Biotech are in this sweet spot. 

Episode July 3, 2020

We expect Gold to depreciate in the coming years. Gold is the inverse of disruption and real economic growth. And we expect more of that to come.

Episode July 2, 2020

Skunk Works is a book about technological ingenuity and institutional complacency. US dominates tech because of army of entrepreneurs. See Space X or Boom Supersonic.

Episode July 1, 2020

Fed pulling uncertainty out of interest rate market lifts demand for risk assets. Entropy doesn't go away, it only shifts from one place to the other. 

Episode June 28, 2020

How would Laplace's Demon do as an investor? My guess is, not well. Looking for better vocabulary in the hedge fund business. 

Episode June 27, 2020

Do we have the right vocabulary for risk taking? Sometimes I feel like we're watching the weather from above and trying to analyze specific situations on the ground. 

Episode June 26, 2020

Experiencing and internalizing uncertainty is key to running a hedge fund. The test is on right now. 

Episode June 25, 2020

Markets shaken by resurgence of virus cases. The problem is we don't have proper institutions to deal with the issue. 

Episode June 22, 2020

The transition from analog to digital intelligence is the biggest event on Wall Street.

Episode June 19, 2020

Mindset is the weapon. In the business of disruption mindset is the competitive advantage. 

Episode June 18, 2020

Key characteristics of winners. 

Episode June 16, 2020

Is the board of Tesla overpaid? Thoughts on board compensation and relevance for Tesla. 

Episode June 14, 2020

"When fighting Monsters make sure you don't become a monster" (Friedrich Nietzsche). We're concerned that yield curve control makes the Fed a monster. 

Episode June 12, 2020

Define variables we control. What are the degrees of freedom of a hedge fund? Less than you might think. 

Episode June 11, 2020

FOMC press conference and market sell off. Market testing Fed stance on negative rates and yield curve control.

Episode June 10, 2020

Recent performance of TSLA and MSFT.

We start buying longterm calls on growth equities. 

Episode June 8, 2020

Disruption in nature and business. Lessons from the transition of fish from water to land. 

Episode June 6, 2020

Explaining why Podcast was named     

"Not Even Wrong"

Episode June 5, 2020

Falling longterm interest rates in the US will boost prices of quality assets

Episode June 3, 2020

Purpose of "Not Even Wrong" Podcast