"Not Even Wrong" Podcast
Investing in fundamentally new concepts and engineering practices with large impact.

Episode June 26, 2022

The hard things about the hard things. When it’s up or out say no to status quo. Either make the step up or go elsewhere and reboot.

Episode June 21, 2022

Three big technologies shaping the future and our portfolio. 1/3 Intelligent Electric Cars, 2/3 Genomics and Crispr 3/3 Blockchain technology in particular solutions to Byzantine Generals problem.

Episode June 19, 2022

Four questions to Onur Mutlu. 1/4 Design space for intelligent electric car, in particular power, reliability, latency and security. 2/4 Integration (Tesla) versus horizontal approach (Nio). 3/4 Application to compute to small (cell) or large ( car). 4/4 Dall.E question. Self driving solved by making car that sees and learns and navigates real world or in virtual animated world like Alpha Go Zero through self play and self supervised reinforcement learning.

Episode June 17, 2022

Failure and rejection are part of Popperian process of discovery. Level, personality, capacity and Will. Iterate and learn, minimize error and cost of error correction. Learn from failure and success. Compound interest is a function of iteration.

Episode June 16, 2022

Inflation is not a measure of money printing, it’s a measure of freedom or the lack thereof. Freedom and free markets are a moral imperative. Free markets allow everybody to participate voluntarily in the process of wealth creation. Markets like housing, health and education are not free and the key drivers of inflation in the US.

Episode June 15, 2022

Regulatory bodies are often used by incumbents to prevent new market entry. Example NHTSA claims Tesla software less safe than others. Business, Market and Capitalism are related but not same. Markets need freedom. Freedom begets wealth creation and vice versa.

Episode June 12, 2022

The problem with Biotech is there is no Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Walt Disney or Thomas Edison. Academics call themselves serial entrepreneurs when in fact they lack focus and dedication. See G. Church or J. Doudna and many others. In order to drive the field towards epochal transformative power with massive wealth generation we need less of G. Church and more of Elon Musk in Biotech.

Episode June 11, 2022

Caribou Bio releases data on Car-T allogenic cancer therapy. Some patients have resurgence. Safety good. Now Increasing dose. Biotech is good investment because increasing natural sharpe ratio = higher rate of iteration, lower error rate and lower cost of error correction than legacy medical approaches. High X and Y. Market treats these stocks like everything else Bayesian.

Episode June 10, 2022

Discussing Peter Thiel's thesis that wealth is created by monopolies. He divides wealth creation into x= you add lots of value to society and y= you’re able to capture a big part of that value. Tesla is such a company. X is big and Y is large. Same with SpaceX. Creating legal monopolies by rapid iteration. Building innovation stack. Hard to compete with.

Episode June 8, 2022

Web3 is the thing which allows for a decentralized way of deciding what is and what isn’t (=solving Byzantine Generals Problem). It’s also the thing which allows for decentralized development of software that builds on itself (=composability). The biggest opportunity is the ability to organize society in new ways similar to Renaissance which introduced law and accountability to previously absolutist societies. More options, more possible outcomes.

Episode June 6, 2022

How should we govern ourselves. Monarchy? Jubilee? No. Family run organizations are efficient but lack scalability and not enough iteration. My favorite is George Washington, a would be King that chose to build an enduring governance structure with iteration and error correction embedded. Constitutional Monarchy is like hybrid electric cars. Not as good as pure play.

Episode June 4, 2022

Book discussion “The Plot” by Jean Hanff Korelitz. Both mystery novel and comic characterization of literary scene and writers. Is a story unique? Does it belong to somebody? Stories are like ideas, they emerge from people and belong to people who tell them, not live them. Stories can only be told, not owned. Writing is like any artistic endeavor, hard to succeed but worth it.

Episode June 3, 2022

Travel blog part 3. Web3 protocol = many to many + decentralized (no authority). New way of organizing society. New way of living. Old professional services like lawyer not important. New functions such as token design, Tokenomics, protocol design.

Episode June 2, 2022 II

Travel Blog part 2. Visit Tesla Giga and Gruenheide. Tesla Giga very large. About 1/3 done. Lots of construction, gravel, roadwork etc. people mostly foreign. Either English speaking or Polish. Positive feeling. Gruenheide very high end tourist spot with lakes around. Understanding opposition by locals. Not much to gain from industry.

Episode June 2, 2022

Travel blog Berlin part 1. Every city has its soul which is the soul of all the people before. Berlin certainly has its share of souls. Tesla chose to be here for two key reasons. 1/2 Germany important for EU EV market. 2/2 Berlin no legacy automotive industry.

Episode May 28, 2022

Chiara Marletto “Science of Can and Can’t” Chapter 6 Work and Heat. are Energy and information the same thing. Physics is the discipline that tries to explain how the world works. Can it be described in pure information theoretic ways. 2nd law is about stored information and reversibility. Can Ising Model help explain physics more generally? Is 2nd law of thermodynamics subjective to observer? Are entanglement and superpositions reasons for irreversibility of energy transfers, i.e. 2nd law?

Episode May 26, 2022

What would Karl Popper think about Elon Musk? He’d be happy. Book discussion “The Open Society and its Enemies” by Karl Popper. Create knowledge that makes society a little bit better off. Better in practice means increase freedom. Musk is laser focused on driving freedom by increasing flexibility and options for customers, countries and the whole globe. Musk and Popper are buddies in spirit.

Episode May 24, 2022

The fight for freedom is “The Fight”. We live in a period of time when this Fight is prevalent. Freedom begets wealth and wealth begets freedom.

Episode May 21, 2022

TSLA key drivers and risk. Technology: 1/4 Battery good. 2/4 FSD monetizable but needs better (self supervised reinforcement learning) 3/4 Chip business good 4/4 Insurance Good. Person and legal risk. 1/2 more attacks on TSLA because more success. Tesla building bulldog legal team good.2/2 Musk risk high needs better Tesla bench. Market risk 1/3 China biggest risk due to lockdowns. 2/3 US interest rates not big risk due to plateauing. 3/3 Leverage in TSLA high due to Modigliani-Miller theorem necessary evil to live with.

Episode May 18, 2022 II

The environment is a bad problem. Because it’s not clear and therefore can be used by anybody for their purpose such as keeping competitors away, raising prices and corrupting politicians. We focus on the problem of decarbonizing energy and transport. Digital discovery drives advances in material science. That’s a good problem.

Episode May 18, 2022

“In Science read from right to left” Karl Popper. Same applies to investing. What is the thing that creates wealth? It’s a company that gives fellow humans something they desire at lower cost and with more value. That’s what we invest in. Tesla. Digitizing life sciences. Digitizing Material

Episode May 17, 2022

Is Elon Musk a contemporary Prince Myshkin from Dostoyevski’s “The Idiot”? The novel examines the consequences of placing a positively good and beautiful individual at the centre of conflicts, desires, passions and egoism of hose with whom he becomes involved. His personality possesses the peculiar capacity to relativize everything that disunifies people and imparts a false seriousness to life.

Episode May 16, 2022

Book discussion “The Open Society and its Enemies” Karl Popper. Part 1. 1/2 Going back to Greek thinking like Plato because they first transitioned from tribal to open society. 2/2 Open Society = you can change from within by piecemeal adjustment w/o violence. Goal is to make everybody slightly less unhappy or develop better solutions to problems. Innovation stack in society building. Same concept like in business. Key is small steps for change, test, error correction, repeat.

Episode May 13, 2022

Business can be viewed as reinforcement learning problem. Reinforcement = iteration. Any institution can be viewed as iteration problem. Compound interest is function of iteration, which is driven by speed of iteration, cost of failure and cost of error correction.

Episode May 12, 2022

Market turmoil. China risk. Leverage. People borrow in USD to buy assets. Carry trade reversal. But fundamentals are even better.

Episode May 8, 2022 II

The purpose of science is to proliferate. Shaping norms so that more resources go towards science. Help develop weapons and other means of warfare, in particular communication (Turing, QuantumCrypto). Why is it proliferating more in totalitarian regimes? Because free societies make it more difficult to optimize for warfare. Risk is auto thief effect. How to make sure they don't kill us? Instead of optimizing for warfare Western science optimizes for status. Solution. Get away from status and optimize for problem solving. Create better incentives with tokenomics thourgh DeSci. Web3.

Episode May 8, 2022

Web3 is when you open your computer you start making money. Tokenomics. MOIT = monetize ownership identity and trust. Twitter must apply those concepts to create an open society with freedom at its core. Freedom = act without authority under constraints of Tokenomics, ie rules of game are known to all.

Episode May 6, 2022

Motivation to read Karl Popper “Open Society & its Enemies”. 1/2 How do organize society to optimize for progress and freedom. 2/2 Musk buying Twitter is motivated by same arguments as Popper uses to defuse extreme forces from left and right as well as petty bureaucrats. All these vectors are infringing on liberties and attempting to rewind the clock of progress, freedom and the achievements of enlightenment.

Episode May 5, 2022

Drawdown due to market sell off. 1/2 Nuclear risk in Ukraine. 2/2 Higher US rates create stress. Book discussion “The Idiot” Elif Batuman. Language. Defining stuff is power. Defining stuff is freedom and transcends hierarchies. Math is abstraction layer that turned into power. Russian literature is something your supposed to like even though you don’t. Elif asks lots of questions but doesn’t offer answers. Makes for frustrating and often boring narrative. Journalists ask questions. Hedge fund managers ask questions and get paid to find answers.

Episode May 3, 2022

Lecture “Intro Computer Architecture” by Onur Mutlu Part 2. Design principles: Look up, down, forward and backward. We pay particular attention to the “down” which is predict where technology is going. Focus on compute because compute is key to wealth generation. Paradigm change with Quantum computing.

Episode May 1, 2022

Why we’re studying advances in Quantum Machine Learning. Accelerate BLAST (basic linear algebra subroutines). Accelerate data analysis and reduce memory bandwidth thanks to qRAM. Parallelism of quantum will reduce energy requirement per unit of analysis by orders of magnitude. One application is animation to enable self supervised reinforcement learning for cars and robots. Exactly what Tesla wants.

Episode April 28, 2022

Lecture Computer Architecture 1, Part 1 by Onur Mutlu. Computation is driver of future products and services. Therefore understanding where computer architecture (CA) is today offers sneak peak into future. CA = design across stack ie. algorithm, program, microarchitecture, instruction set. Logic, device, electron. Today we solve problems by manipulating electrons. Tomorrow maybe photons, atoms etc. Feynman “plenty of room at bottom”.

Episode April 27, 2022

It’s the product stupid! Will Musk-Twitter succeed? Will Musk succeed with Tesla. All these questions boil down to one thing: The Product.All questions about business are questions about product. Entrepreneurs are people who create products and services. The test is wether the product is something people want at a cost that allows for reinvestment. Bacteria goes to sunlight. Products are sunlight.

Episode April 26, 2022

TSLA selling off. 1/2 Musk selling TSLA shares. 2/2 Bezos tweets that China might have leverage over Twitter through Tesla. This warrants fear but is not such a big concern. Musk wants to save free speech in US not make it happen in China. Proliferating trust, human identity and (maybe) ownership on Twitter. Mutual benefit between Musk and China. Twitter can surface truth about China which is different than Western narrative.

Episode April 24, 2022

Web3 and publishing. Ownership, identity, property rights and monetization. Improve on current system of gate keepers and arbiters of prestige. Introduce composability. Musk needs to work on those problems with TWTR or elsewhere. Free speech = no authority decides, network decides. Smart contracts work with monetary incentive. Monetary = resources to increase freedom.

Episode April 23, 2022

Biotech debacle. Down 50% ytd. Are these stocks fluff or real? They're real because the companies are building an innovation stack in  solving the problem of digitizing life sciences. Transform the field from bespoke alchemy to engineering driven solutions. No threat of competition by incumbents like NFLX because startups are doing something radically different. Goal 5x in 5 years.

Episode April 21, 2022 II

Book discussion “Grapes of Wrath” by John Steinbeck. 1/3 Great economic elaboration. Literature is best history and economics. 2/3 Defining novel of 20th century US. Technology displacing human labor. Strife. Avoid strife by increasing iteration in education. 3/3 Migration is iteration and brings fear and hope. People change when they migrate.

Episode April 21, 2022

TSLA earrings discussion. Q1 2022. Execution. Growth through delivering fundamentally new concepts and engineering practices. 1/2 Roberto taxi. 2/2 Optimus. Both are 1 type events. At least 50% growth for 5-10 years. Optimus is the tractor of 21st century (Grapes of Wrath). High dexterity and hand eye coordination work will be replaced by machines.

Episode April 20, 2022

NFLX collapse. NFLX is not disruptor and TSLA is. Impressions from “Grapes of Wrath”. Book of the 20th century America. 1/2 switch from brutal capitalism to more human, government induced social capitalism. Main reason for economic displacement is delta between speed of education adjustment to technological change. 2/2 migration is hard and hopeful.

Episode April 19, 2022

Probability is sorcery. Not useful for analysis of real things. Only what is and what isn’t matters. Channel life decisions towards 0/1 decisions. Is or isn’t, not 50/50 stuff. Even gut feeling can have 0/1 decision power. High conviction means 0/1 decisions.

Episode April 15, 2022

Twitter take over by Musk. Instill purpose. Free speech means no authority decides. Like Bitcoin. No throat to choke. Bring in bench to execute against new purpose.

Episode April 13, 2022

Solution to China problem is key for near term success of TSLA. Find way to produce cars in suppressive lockdown. Bubble solution. Long term China higher risk because leadership shows hand. Maximizing for power not economic prosperity. Big change in post communist area since 1990. Not maximizing for economic prosperity but other goals. There is no other thing you can maximize for long term.

Episode April 11, 2022

Two drivers of recent correction in markets and TSLA. Rates higher and China. Rates ok. China concerning. If you fight monster make sure you don’t become monster. China fighting zero COVID, risk of becoming monster. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--w5H...

Episode April 8, 2022

“Higher taxes and more government are results not causes”. John Steinbeck “Grapes of Wrath”. Cause is basic human desire to work and create. Technology replaces humans and they can’t react fast enough. Education should be organized by VC because they have best insight into future. Key is to have agency = meaning + status. Anything which is predictable will be predicted. Some things are not predictable. Jobs that are hard to predict pay more. Stick with what you’re good at. Forget predicting stuff.

Episode April 6, 2022

What would TWTR look like if Elon Musk had founded it? Grand master plan + engineering driven innovation stack + top talent. Grand vision= solve problem of deciding what matters with decentralized approach along lines of Byzantine generals problem and/or Bitcoin protocol. Protocol not platform. Reason he didn’t start TWTR is because tech talent wasn’t ready back then. Now available.

Episode April 3, 2022

Talent development. Example MLS Next. US soccer is on the verge of becoming prime breeding ground for soccer talent. Why? Build elitist culture of performance and prestige around U15 and U17 age groups attracting best player and coaching talent. Like US academic system after WWII.

Episode April 1, 2022

Evolution of biological systems. Analogy to investment process. Initial DNA, mutation, reaction to environment, how does the organism change with changing environment? Best indicator for wealth creation “ is the company interesting? Do I enjoy working on this investment?” Economics is theory of competitive response like Darwin is a theory of natural selection.

Episode March 30, 2022

Nickel mining. Interesting because secular change downstream due to Tesla. High grade, NIMBY projects in US, Chile etc. Tesla is THE MARKET, that’s why they are ahead of curve in procuring materials. Decision to invest in mining is based on cost of capital which is TSLA.

Episode March 28, 2022

Andrej Karpathy leaving Tesla on sabbatical. What should he be working on? Transformers for video to drive development of video animation for self supervised reinforcement learning. Go back to academia and create chair to develop talent for AI.2.0. This would help accelerate Teslas' mission to achieve autonomy.

Episode March 26, 2022

Larry Fink letter to CEOs. New world order with selective globalization. Tesla at forefront. EV, solar, battery and NEW “Rethink NIMBY”. Tesla is pioneering manufacturing domestically to overcome NIMBY problem.

Episode March 25, 2022

Fed influence on markets is game theoretic in nature. Signaling induces front running. No fundamental reason to react on Fed action. Fed induces more volatility. Solution is rule based monetary system.

Episode March 21, 2022

When aspiring goals focus on two things. 1/2 get the job and 2/2 retain the job. Former is driven by actions with awe quality. Example in soccer GK prevented goals, spectacular saves etc. The former is long term like stay healthy, develop strong mindset and drill basics.

Episode March 18, 2022

Book discussion “Circe” by Madeline Miller, a novel. Greek mythology is base for Western thought. Literature is base for human thought. Brain is like DNA and literature is RNA. Literature shapes thinking which shapes action. Three take aways. 1/3 Circe doesn’t follow prophecies she believes in her own will. 2/3 old thinking = prophecies , new thinking = own free will. 3/3 living means to love, fail, fight, win, loose. Goods don’t live, mortals do.

Episode March 17, 2022

Privatizing sanctions. Companies are taking matters into own hands. Sign of deterioration of government institutions. It’s like mob rule which happens when governments don’t focus on safety. First time since WWII rogue state is challenging world order. Businesses are on top of global world order. “It’s the economy stupid.” Businesses are reacting to rogue state trying to push balance of power. Zeitgeist back to US post WWII with hope and purpose.

Episode March 15, 2022

How will energy shock and de-russianizatuon affect Fed behavior and rates? No rate hike. Higher commodity prices need to flow through economy so supply chains adjust appropriately. China will have scalper role and mitigate impact of sanctions. Global economy a lot less affected by commodities flow through. Agile economies/companies will come out stronger.

Episode March 12, 2022

Tesla is an energy company. The world has a problem right now which his how to de-russianize global energy. Tesla has been building infrastructure to solve exactly for this problem. Fundamentals of Tesla are extremely favorable.

Episode March 9, 2022

Popper as investor = it’s about solving real problems. Wittgenstein as investor = just a game of words. Example of problem solving as investment is how to solve global energy when Russia is North Korea. Rouge states cannot be part of world markets. Apply new engineering practices to problem. Feels exciting. Solving problems feel s different than just applying methods.

Episode March 7, 2022

Russia is turned into North Korea. Eventually every rouge state will go that way. Russian economy not impactful for global trade but energy markets will see adjustments through higher prices. Good for Tesla since Musk has been driving decarbonization of energy. Now it’s also de-Russianizitaion of energy = Sun + battery + EV. What started 20 years ago will now accelerate like Y2K or COVID effect on digitization.

Episode March 5, 2022 II

Are we benefiting from serendipity or are we good performers? Every reader reads through his own prism. Introspection. We are not riding on serendipity. Principle stack. Investing in wealth creators means you have to think like them and adopt their lifestyle.

Episode March 5, 2022

SpaceX modifies mission statement to focus on “Cyber attacks and signal jamming”. Follow new path on innovation stack. Good example of how Musk thinks about his companies.

Episode March 3, 2022

Book discussion Julian Barnes “The Sense of an Ending”. Most people let life happen instead of making things happen in life. Action is what makes a person. Narratives are subjective. Little difference between thinking you have what it takes and actually having what it takes because your actions will be the similar. Your actions define your person. Very Albert Camus.

Episode March 2, 2022

Oil futures market pricing in non zero probability of Russian supply coming back in future. Also higher likelihood of US recession. US is hopeful and with purpose like in 1950s.

Episode February 27, 2022

Western democracies are softening and what to do about it? Protect freedom must be priority. Rules of engagement. If you miss behave you get put in place. Dilemma. How to fight the monster without becoming a monster yourself. How to protect Popperian system of governance and error correction with potentially violent methods without jeopardizing the very system you fight to protect?

Episode February 26, 2022

Is Elon Musk leaning towards right? No. He is fighting deterioration of government institutions. Creeping control of government institutions of  how people behave in economy is bad. Musk like other entrepreneurs is a soldier of freedom and fights with innovation and rhetoric.

Episode February 25, 2022

Book discussion Amor Towles “The Lincoln Highway”. Great narrative. Simple and powerful characters. Concept of road trip as a symbol for courage and change. Story line of hero character is diamond shaped. Start narrow then widen as life complexity increase then narrow again. Ending of book disappoints.

Episode February 24, 2022

Ukraine Russia situation. Goal is to control gas assets. Fix institutional vacuum in Ukraine. Market impact not severe. Higher energy prices will accelerate recession that we’d have anyway due to post pandemic privileges effect. US must strengthen institutions.

Episode February 23, 2022

Drawdown due to uncertainty around Russia. Recession risk up. Discussing two self driving car initiatives. Cruise full self drive taxi service. Wayve full self drive learning stack. Tesla has most advanced AI but can learn from competition. 

Episode February 18, 2022

Moneyball for sports, investing and war. Apply your resources where you get the best value when maximizing a win. What is a win? Invest in companies that try a lot and try where they get most efficient results. Tesla mobile app, supercharger payments, autopilot, mobile service.

Episode February 17, 2022

Are you a giver or a taker? Invest in companies that are givers (Tesla) not takers (GM, ATT, Comcast etc). What job are you hired to do, or what can you give? We are hired to produce returns and help people with fear.

Episode February 13, 2022

Solutions in the technology world require solutions in the human world. What do you do when a high performer gets held back by his boss? 1/3 make sure you’re on same page, same goals. 2/3 make sure he has no alter motives and 3/3 make sure you’re doing your best to work towards common goals.

Episode February 11, 2022

Large draw down due to Russia risk. Ukraine invasion drives stocks down, oil up and an increase in recession risk. How to behave in situations when you set high goals and don’t get desired results and/or appreciation by superiors or customers? Scenario planning takes out anxiety. Manifesting bad and likely good scenarios. Fear is not the problem. It's the unknown. Reduce the unknown. 

Episode February 10, 2022

Call on interest rates and macro. We believe rates are plateauing and will decline in coming quarters. Inflation peak. Pandemic privileges retracting will push workers back to labor market, which will ease supply chains. Demand slowing down. Inventory build up. Tesla short term pain, long term gain. Will emerge even stronger from this because product and service better and lower cost.

Episode February 9, 2022

Book discussion “Where the Crawdads sing” by Delia Owens. Three themes. 1/3 Nature 2/3 Love and 3/3 Justice. Good and bad in nature are just different shades of light. Nature grounds. Nature is efficient and only source of wealth. Love is necessary to achieve excellence. Love is life. Life is love. Justice is like nature, good and bad are different shades of light. Even moral philosophy and religion have different interpretations of justice dependent on circumstances. Justice is complex. Justice evolves and is subject to error correction.