"Not Even Wrong" Podcast
Investing in fundamentally new concepts and engineering practices with large impact.

Episode October14, 2021

Notes on “The Magic Mountain” by Thomas Mann. Time? It’s not linear. The more active you are, the slower time goes, the more longevity you have. Markets look at time in linear fashion and price stocks with Bayesian method. We don’t look at it that way. We focus on cost of iteration as inverse of longevity. Longevity is a proxy for valuation.

Episode October12, 2021 II

Discussing Crispr Tx phase 1 results on CTX110. Good efficacy, similar to autologous peers. Question is, if efficacy not much better, how much will they be able to charge? Safety results good. Crispr companies need to show higher efficacy, better safety and lower cost. Key is multiplex editing.

Episode October12, 2021

The measure of wealth is Freedom. Freedom generates wealth. Wealth and Freedom are two sides of the same coin. Freedom makes error correction without coercion and/or violence. It’s a fragile flywheel. We must fight to keep it running.

Episode October11, 2021

Efficient market hypothesis is a good working tool for hedge funds. Market Efficiency is when fundamental, non idiosyncratic information, is reflected in asset prices. We focus on bespoke and idiosyncratic factors that drive valuations of assets, such as technology risk. Observations are available to everybody but they are theory laden. Hence their interpretation is unique to us. We don’t spend resources to out-Beta the market.

Episode October 9, 2021

Note on why we invest in Biotech. Note on risk and reward. Note on life sciences on the cusp of becoming a predictable engineering practice. Note on timing.

Episode October 8, 2021

Setback for allogenic Car-T Immunotherapy. Allogene Tx gets a halt on trials from FDA because one patient in one of their trials shows irregular chromosomal results with injected Car-T cells. Allogene Tx works with TALENs and is based on Cellectis technology for Gene editing. That is older tech, predates Crispr. Key is that Crispr allows for faster, lower cost and more precise edits. Same applies to Base Editing and Prime Editing. Immunotherapy has been around for 100 years. Fears of T-cells going rouge and turning against patient have always been center stage. This is another example. Crispr is more robust and allows for faster iteration. Fundamentally Crispr will enable digitization of life sciences.

Episode October 7, 2021

Book discussion “Lenin” by Victor Sebestyen. Personal portrait of Lenin gives insight into revolution from Lenin’s perspective. Great angle. Note on revolution. Note on the man Lenin. Note on the difference between Popperian West and authoritarian East, why the inaction of incumbent powers lead to the seizure of power by an ill prepared, badly organized group of thugs called Bolsheviks. Note on why Lenin created fertile ground for future dictators like Stalin, Mao and other self proclaimed ideological leaders in the 20th century. Finally a note on why Lenin is still relevant in today’s “Post truth Politics ” and why that’s dangerous.

Episode October 6, 2021

Observations are theory laden. Conversation between Brett Hall and David Deutsch. Important for wealth generation business or any knowledge business. Knowledge is a solution to a problem. It’s conjectural and can be devolved with observations. But those are based on theory. Risk on falling into Goedelian inconsistency loop where theory defines observations and vice versa. Happens often in hedge fund business.

Episode October 5, 2021 II

Chiara Marletto on Sean Carroll podcast. Build theory on Counterfactuals to take account of innovation stack. Innovation stacks are not time reversible. Wealth creation is building products and services by exploring Counterfactuals. Science and free markets work through building innovation stacks and thus replacing incumbents with better solutions.

Episode October 5, 2021

Demand for electrons will go up. Price has to come down. New energy mix. Solar, Natgas, nuclear. Tesla, Cameco, Range Resources.

Episode October 4, 2021

Third quarter performance. Tesla good, Biotech not so good. Key for Tesla going forward are 1/2 4680 batteries and 2/2 Self learning stack.

Episode September 29, 2021

Visiting Podcast from 7/11/21 where I talk about Fei Fei Li and her research about meta learning. How did my thinking evolve? Meta learning is computation which again is exploration of counter factuals. Less energy for future learning is optimization problem. Multiverse where energy for future learning to solve specific problem is more likely.

Episode September 28, 2021

Book discussion "Lenin Biography" by Victor Sebestyen. Today I focus on the period right after the October 1917 revolution in Petrograd. Cult of personality. Lenin switches from socially concerned revolutionary to power hungry monster. Power reveals, power doesn't necessarily corrupt. Within days Lenin overruns several ideas he was allegedly cherishing for years, such as social justice, human rights and economic freedom.

Episode September 27, 2021 II

US Dollar supremacy stronger than ever. Risk of disruption by crypto high. Can happen fast. Problem with dollar system, it’s too expensive and bloats US political establishment. Euro and Yen already incapable to spur economic growth and innovation. China fears crypto shows power of crypto.

Episode September 27, 2021

Trip to Bergell to birthplace of Giacometti. Discussing first 30 years of Giacometti. Two big influences. Les Demoiselles d’Avignon and Surrealism. Both aim to deliver art from the deepest inner self, circumvent the rider of the elephant and show what’s inside the elephant. Violent sexuality paired with tender love. This tension makes Giacometti so attractive. Giacometti is a “score takes care of itself kind of guy”. Problem is, how not to fall into nihilism trap?

Episode September 26, 2021

Trip to Bergell to birthplace of Giacometti. Discussing first 30 years of Giacometti. Two big influences. Les Demoiselles d’Avignon and Surrealism. Both aim to deliver art from the deepest inner self, circumvent the rider of the elephant and show what’s inside the elephant. Violent sexuality paired with tender love. This tension makes Giacometti so attractive. Giacometti is a “score takes care of itself kind of guy”. Problem is, how not to fall into nihilism trap?

Episode September 25, 2021

Deciding when to stick to a manifesto and when to change. Tesla is facing fundamental problem in changing AI effort to self learning. Crispr companies are facing challenge through base and prime editing. Solution is flexible adaptation to master plan. Netflix offers solution, keeper test. It’s the question am I still up to the job and is the job up to me? Flexible adaptation to environment from both parties.

Episode September 24, 2021

Markets take the subjectivity out of judgment. Fallabilism rests on ideas with access to liquid markets to compete. The great thing about Popper is that he opens the door for the competitive process. Criticism and error correction are best way to win in competitive markets.

Episode September 23, 2021

Free will or not? Wrong question. It’s more like, how do you react to problems presented by environment? In that sense, you have free will to come up with creative solutions. But you don't control the environment, so you're not free in what problems to solve. The problems are defined by the environment. In that sense, both the Free will and the non Free will camps have a point. Discussing Free will in the context of disruption and competitive response.

Episode September 21, 2021 II

We don’t use computation as basis for the investment process because we don’t  have  the necessary  knowledge. Instead we use a principal stack. We are like early Renaissance navigators relying on philosophical methods instead of scientific. This will change. Self supervised reinforcement learning could pave the way to more computational methods in wealth generation. 

Episode September 21, 2021

Why is it that we don’t trade around market events and try to exploit volatility? We don’t have the tools and conviction necessary to succeed in this type of activity. Our mission is to invest in new concepts with innovation stacks built around. The key is finding entrepreneurs with “Zero to One” culture who can turn technological inventions into innovation stacks.

Episode September 20, 2021

China Evergrande large real estate company in China is in financial trouble. Market turmoil due to fear of default. Good thing is now we know why Tesla has seen sluggish sales in China. This has been going on for months. Now the debt market fears default. Too much leverage. Market corrections are part of a functioning mechanism. Like error correction in science.

Episode September 18, 2021 III

Book Discussion “The Black Cloud” by Fred Hoyle. 1/3 Our communication is confined by physical substrate like brain, body, gravity and energy consumption. Gaseous existence would be more efficient. 2/3 Communication and computation are the main concepts of 21st century. Communication is conveying counter-factuals and computation is the exploration of counter-factuals. 3/3 Deep problems are not suited for scientific method. Scientists don’t have tools to tackle deep problems. Literature is better at it.

Episode September 18, 2021 II

Why do we need energy for computation. Computation is the exploration of counter factuals. Energy is required to explore . The more the faster. Math is an abstract form of representing relationships between stuff. It’s a shortcut for exploring counter-factuals. Computation allows for faster error correction which again allows for faster error making? Relationship between error making and error correction defines progress.

Episode September 18, 2021

Book discussion “The Black Cloud” by Fred Hoyle. Part 1. Inspired by one specific scene in the book, when earth communicates with alien intelligence. 1/2 We are bound by physical body and in particular gravity. 2/2 This limits our use of energy for computation which is the driving force of intelligence. Is it? Why do we need energy for computation?

Episode September 16, 2021

Failure of Central Banking and political system. Blockchain technology is alternative. Human centric decision making replaced by algorithmic. Central planning and governance doesn’t work because error correction lags speed of mistake making. Like in the Renaissance when celestial decision making was replaced by human centric decision making, we are witnessing a shift from human to algorithmic decision making.

Episode September 15, 2021

The problem of legacy education. Technical debt from 19th century inhibits eduction system to foster faster disruptive evolution. People need to train critical and creative thinking plus risk taking through iteration. This is crucial for companies looking to hire for solving hard problems. Solution lies in self learning and risk mitigation for individuals.

Episode September 13, 2021

Book discussion “Malibu Rising” by Taylor Jenkins Reid. A novel wrapped as candy but actually delivering real nutrition. Very good book. Three fundamental threads. 1/3 Commitment and lack there off, 2/3 Love and lack there off and 3/3 Fire as destroyer and laying the ground for new things. Iteration is key. 

Episode September 12, 2021

Today’s education system is a large technical debt and therefore exactly the opposite of an innovation stack. Instead of solving a problem and creating new, better problems we solve for a small benefit with large long-term costs attached.

Episode September 10, 2021

Phase transitions in physics is problem solving in science. Same applies to business. Problem solving is the core of innovation stacks. Only businesses with phase transitions offer wealth generation potential. Predicting phase transitions is impossible. But assessing the potential for phase transitions is feasible.

Episode September 8, 2021

How good of an investor would Karl Popper have been? A really good one. What Popper applies to science can be generalized for any process that requires the creation of knowledge. Wealth generation is driven by innovation stacks crated by entrepreneurs. Popper calls this problem solving. Key is lowering the cost of iteration through compute. It pays to think about how to think.

Episode September 6, 2021

"The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency." Lenin. We are on this path. Negative yields in Europe and Japan are canaries in the cola mine. Bitcoin and other Blockchains are solution. There has to be a cost of money for capitalism to function.

Episode September 5, 2021

Book discussion “Great Circle” Maggie Shipstead. If you take a character from 2015 to 1915, would it change? Drive, conviction and uniqueness eventually are the most relevant features of the human condition. Build your own innovation stack and create the You. Is drive inhuman? Marianne Graves sometimes comes across as inhuman because she’s so ambitious. In the end we all end up in a circle. You push too much you end up in the wrong place. Success requires stepping over PNR (point of no return). Kaleb is my favorite person in the book. Freedom, accountability and character.

Episode September 4, 2021

Discussing Rodney Brooks on Lex Friedman. His arguments are vacuous. Reasoning by induction is not useful when talking about disruptive technologies. AI and robotics will be driven by self learning and brake new ground.

Episode September 3, 2021

Book discussion “What happened to the USMNT?” Steven Mandis. US soccer culture needs legitimacy. Currently trying to copy Europe is energy wasted. Better approach is to develop unique US soccer culture by borrowing from other US sports such as Football. Focus on specialized skills such as defense, offense, turnovers etc. with dedicated coaching staff and specific strategies works. Kids in the US would identify much faster and legitimacy would increase delivering a much broader talent pool. Build an innovation stack in US soccer around specific US centric sports culture.

Episode September 1, 2021

Manifesto: Path towards FSD. Self supervised reinforcement learning . Based on video animation developed by AI system in the spirit of DALL.E. The circle.m: Video animation trained by real world images performs realistic video animation that allows for self leaning of robots that then can be deployed in the physical world and do a much better job than humans.

Episode August 31, 2021

Discussing Wojciech Zaremba Robotics lead at open AI. Robotics will happen with self driving cars. Self supervised reinforcement learning. To do that you need advancements in video animation like DALL.E. Tesla needs to build innovation stack around video animation and self supervised reinforcement learning.

Episode August 30, 2021

“To obtain knowledge, add something every day. To obtain wisdom, subtract something every day.” Lao Tzu. Subtraction works towards reducing complexity and clarifying goals. Innovation stack adds better problems with corresponding better solutions and thus reduces complexity. Innovation stack is a form of subtraction.

Episode August 28, 2021

The aim of wealth generation? Leaning on the essay by Karl Popper “The aim of Science”. Solve problem of wealth generation. Find explanations that are independent of the goal. In other words. don’t explain investments with arguments that depend on outcome. “Tesla is good investment because they are winning”. Explain with independent arguments. Principle stack, cost of iteration and non compound effect of knowledge.

Episode August 27, 2021

Fun is a good criterion for what to do next. Evolutionary efficient because it uses less energy. Bayesian approach to investing is wrong because probabilities don’t work with creative processes. Creative projects are driven by counterfactuals and potential. Probabilities don’t work. Projects where probabilities work are not interesting.

Episode August 25, 2021 II

Ideas for a new manifesto for Orange Capital Partners. What problem are you solving and how are you applying computation to solve it? Are you applying learning methods and if so, are there any explicit levels or are you doing Alpha Go Zero type self supervised reinforcement learning?

Episode August 25, 2021

Alpha GoZero and Tesla Autopilot software. Tesla will transition from search and hardcode solution for planning and control to self supervised reinforcement learning as base for AI. This will deliver true FSD. New architecture needed. New talent and rethink also most likely required.

Episode August 22, 2021

Humanoid Robot by Tesla is a great way forward. Tesla is optimizing for iteration and iterating on the innovation stack of vision, planning and robotics. Humanoid Robots require more fine grained motor skills. This can be useful for many application at Tesla, Space X, Boring company and Neuralink. Criticizing Musk for pushing the envelope is a void argument.

Episode August 21, 2021 II

In sports and business the higher you reach the more flaws you see. This leads to insecurity and fear of being inadequate. Fear is good as long as you do something useful with it. Build on your strengths.

Episode August 21, 2021

Why did I take on Boxing? Start something new in light of Kye staring High School. New experiences sharpen brain and body. Boxing is a one muscle sport. Combine limbs and core to one muscle movements.

Episode August 19, 2021

Tesla AI Day. 1/4 Vision to build model of reality 2/4 Planning based on predictions 3/4 Training software for labeling 4/4 hardware for training and inference with DOJO and FSD chip. Tesla is compute company.

Episode August 18, 2021 II

When it comes to short sellers who predict bubbles in technology there are two questions. 1/2 Do you have a theory of disruption and is your short based on this and 2/2 Are you just trading or do you have a longterm view? In both cases shorting is legitimate. Everything else is charlatans in suits. Buying puts and bragging about being short is like dipping your toes in the ocean at Mavericks and talking about big wave surfing.

Episode August 18, 2021

Creativity is key to wealth creation. Requires freedom. People need to be as free as possible but still function within processes. Mindset is the weapon. Applies to business as much as sports. Example youth soccer.

Episode August 16, 2021

Tesla facing power backlash from China and US. Disrupters are never welcome. Now is the phase where the incumbents are fighting back. Book discussion “Interior Chinatown” Charles Yu. What is identity? Who deserves one? It’s hard earned and achievable through your own endeavor. Nobody will give it to you. Same applies to entrepreneurs.

Episode August 14, 2021

Book discussion “Who is Maud Dixon?” By Alexandra Andrews. Genius requires a no half measures approach to life. It feels inhuman. That’s what we think when we say “be unique” like in Peter Thiel’s Zero to One.

Episode August 12, 2021

Information embedded in counterfactuals. The more, the more potential. But it needs to happen in the context of the "Innovation Stack". Fundamentally an innovation stack is built around information, digitized and therefore optimizable through algorithms. Iteration is most effective when it's based on computation, algorithms and digitized information.

Episode August 11, 2021

Visit at AKA in San Jose. Place where the likes of Khabib train. Excellence and energy radiate. Why this is important to us..